Men's tennis ratings
A rating for every ATP player on each surface, and a win probability for any matchup. Every prediction is checked against the result and published.
Updated 29 Oct 2026
Top 10
Ordered by rating. The ATP ranking is shown for comparison.
| # | Player | Rating | ATP | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jannik SinnerITA | 2539 | 1 | = |
| 2 | Carlos AlcarazESP | 2358 | 3 | +1 |
| 3 | Alexander ZverevGER | 2308 | 2 | -1 |
| 4 | Novak DjokovicSRB | 2305 | 5 | +1 |
| 5 | Rafael JodarESP | 2209 | 13 | +8 |
| 6 | Ben SheltonUSA | 2202 | 9 | +3 |
| 7 | Arthur FilsFRA | 2201 | 11 | +4 |
| 8 | Daniil MedvedevRUS | 2193 | 8 | = |
| 9 | Alex De MinaurAUS | 2167 | 7 | -2 |
| 10 | Taylor FritzUSA | 2160 | 10 | = |
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz
Win probability on each surface.
Rated above or below their ATP ranking
ATP points add up results over the past year. The rating measures current level, so the two can drift apart. These are the biggest gaps inside the ATP top 150.
Rated higher
- Jack Draper14134
- Grigor Dimitrov13751
- Arthur Cazaux14264
- Eliot Spizzirri11243
- Lloyd Harris13976
- Arthur Gea8730
Rated lower
- Vit Kopriva69137
- Matteo Arnaldi36103
- Sebastian Baez51112
- Martin Landaluce65121
- Aleksandar Vukic96150
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli77127
Accuracy
Tested on 33,254 past matches. Each prediction used only results from before that match.
Compared with the betting market
Scored by log-loss, which punishes confident misses; lower is better. The model gets 85% of the way from a coin flip to the closing betting line.
Calibration
Matches grouped by predicted win chance. When the dots sit on the dashed line, a player given 70% wins about 70% of the time.
Predicted (across) vs actual win rate (up), %
Notes
- 7 Jun 2026MoverMatteo Arnaldi is the tour's biggest riser — up 128 Elo in eight weeks
- 7 Jun 2026RatingThe model's clear No. 1: Sinner leads Alcaraz by 82 Elo
- 7 Jun 2026MoverRafael Jodar already carries a near-elite rating off just 34 tour matches
- 7 Jun 2026TrendFour players have gained 100+ Elo in eight weeks
- 7 Jun 2026FindingClay still lifts Tsitsipas most — the model rates him 142 Elo higher on the dirt
- 7 Jun 2026FindingThe model and the rankings disagree most about Gaël Monfils — 145 places apart